The most naturally pessimistic Democratic operative could not imagine a scenario more nightmarish than what happened on Tuesday. Conversely, it is doubtful that any Republican pro could have dreamed up the result, at least in the presidential race.
As I’ve written, not only do swing states tend to break in one direction, so too do swing voters. That is how campaigns that can appear to be too close to call going into the election have the potential, and indeed likelihood, to pop in one direction or the other. The 1980 contest between President Carter and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan is a great example of this. Undecideds decide. So it was on Tuesday.
Winners are often remembered as having done everything right, the loser everything wrong. As the saying goes, the victor gets to write history, and besides, these days everyone likes to see things in a binary fashion. Yet it’s hardly that simple.
The Trump campaign was saddled with untold millions in personal legal bills for the candidate, as well as a downturn in small-dollar contributions. As a result,
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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