There’s little doubt that Donald Trump has changed the rules of campaigning in the 21st century. Or, more accurately, he’s the first to understand how to effectively campaign in a 21st century media environment. Yet, winning the media cycle is different from winning a campaign. And, as my colleagues and I have written about extensively, that requires him to do better with the electorate that existed in 2012, or to change the composition of the electorate in 2016 to his benefit. Thus far, it doesn’t look as if he’s doing either. First, let’s take a look at some of the most recent national public polling. The May NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found Trump winning white non-college voters by 27 points and tied with Clinton among those with a college degree. If those numbers hold until November, that’s very good news for Clinton. Romney carried non-college white voters in 2012 by 24 points and carried college educated white voters by 12 points. In other words, Trump is doing just three points better among non-college white voters, but 12 points worse among

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