One of the biggest “known unknowns” of the GOP primary is whether Donald Trump will be able to translate his raucous rally goers into actual votes come election time. There has been rampant speculation about whether those who are the most supportive of the blustery billionaire are 1) registered to vote; 2) registered as Republicans; and/or 3) willing to show up and vote. While I was up in New Hampshire this past week, Trump detractors were quick to tell me how many Massachusetts license plates they saw in the parking lots at Trump rallies. In a recent dispatch from Iowa, the New York Times reports that while Trump’s backers “say they are confident that” they will bring new, previously disaffected voters out to caucus in February, “state party records indicate only modest gains in the numbers of registered Republicans over recent months, a pattern little different from that in past election years.” The Upshot’s Nate Cohn found that Trump’s strongest voters are “self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats.” He also found that those who are most likely to
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