One week before Election Day, The Cook Political Report published a list of 13 swing counties to watch for clues about the results as votes began rolling in. In the end, President-elect Donald Trump appears poised to carry 12 of the 13 counties we highlighted, with Vice President Kamala Harris ahead solely in Nevada’s Washoe County — and by just 423 votes.
Trump’s near-sweep of our 13 key counties underscores the staggering scope of the nationwide shift to the Republican Party. More than 90% of counties appear to have swung toward the GOP versus 2020, ranging from highly college-educated pockets of Northern Virginia to diverse urban strongholds like the Bronx and Chicago. Even in rural Appalachia, Trump managed to squeeze slightly higher shares of the vote than he did in 2016 or 2020.
Though Trump’s victory isn’t a landslide — his popular vote margin is likely to end up around 1.5 points — he made decisive inroads across a wide variety of demographic groups. His gains with Latino voters were particularly pronounced: Texas’ Maverick County, which rests along the border
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