One week before Election Day, The Cook Political Report published a list of 13 swing counties to watch for clues about the results as votes began rolling in. In the end, President-elect Donald Trump appears poised to carry 12 of them, with Vice President Kamala Harris ahead solely in Nevada’s Washoe County — and by just 423 votes.
Trump’s near-sweep of our 13 key counties underscores the staggering scope of the nationwide shift to the Republican Party. More than 90% of counties appear to have swung toward the GOP versus 2020, ranging from highly college-educated pockets of Northern Virginia to diverse urban strongholds like the Bronx and Chicago. Even in rural Appalachia, Trump managed to squeeze slightly higher shares of the vote than he did in 2016 or 2020.
Though Trump’s victory isn’t a landslide — his popular vote margin is likely to end up around 1.5 points — he made decisive inroads across a wide variety of demographic groups. His gains with Latino voters were particularly pronounced: Texas’ Maverick County, which rests along the border with Mexico and where
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.