What makes Scott Walker such a formidable candidate in the primary is also what makes him vulnerable in a general election. As Walker flexes his conservative muscle on everything from immigration to gay marriage to abortion, he also risks being easily portrayed as 'out of touch' to the moderate voters needed to win next fall. While there's debate over whether a campaign should run a 'persuasion' or a 'mobilize the base' strategy, there's no question that a candidate must win over those voters who define themselves as moderates. One top Democratic strategist contends that to secure the White House, a candidate needs to capture between 55-60 percent of moderate voters. In 2008, Obama won moderates with 60 percent. In 2012, even as he lost independent voters by five points, he carried moderates with 56 percent. Winning over moderate voters means finding a way to get at least within earshot of the center on key issues. And, on two issues in particular - immigration and gay marriage - the GOP position is light-years from it. The latest data from Pew shows
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.