There are plenty of reasons for Republicans in both the House and Senate to feel more than a bit of angst, though the reasons are different in each chamber.
On the House side, Speaker Mike Johnson would be well advised to require all Republicans in the House to show that they are up to date on all their vaccinations. Even so much as a bad cold or flu season could tip the GOP into minority status before the 2026 calendar year even begins.
Comparisons can be tricky because vacancies used to last longer and members used to be more wont to vote across party lines, but the Republican majority of 220-215 when the 119th Congress opens will be as close as any House in modern times, certainly since it expanded to 435 members in 1913. In reality, it’s effectively even closer than that.
Take the resignation of Rep. Matt Gaetz into account, and that brings the GOP down to 219 seats until after an April 1 special election. Two more vacancies, created by Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida, nominated to
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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