Since Barack Obama’s win in 2008, phrases like “Demographic Destiny” and “blue wall” have become part of the justification for Democrats slight edge in winning the White House in 2016. Demographic destiny, of course, refers to Democrats’ success in winning over the fast-growing minority population, as well as women and the millennial generation, while the “blue wall” refers to the 242 electoral votes every Democratic nominee has won since 1992. Obama’s win in states like Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina in 2008 upended the conventional wisdom about the path to 270 for the Democratic nominee. Can the GOP forge its own new path to success in 2016, specifically by winning in the Midwest? Over the last 40 years the Electoral College map has undergone a remarkable amount of change, yet today it looks pretty stable. Since 1992, every Democrat running for President has carried the same 19 states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. New Mexico has gone to Democrats in every election
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