This is a big week in the 2024 presidential election. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina already announced his bid for the Republican presidential nomination on Monday, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to follow suit on Wednesday. The Republican National Convention opens 60 weeks from today in Milwaukee, Democrats follow suit in Chicago five weeks later, and the general election will be here just 76 weeks from Tuesday. So let’s step back and assess where the race stands today.
The conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump is the favorite for the Republican nomination, even though Republicans would be better off with someone else as their nominee. I not only concur, but I think Trump’s chances are rapidly rising in the primary race. Having said that, I believe the general election, even against Trump, will be a lot more challenging for Democrats than most expect.
Normally the starting point when looking at a contest for a party nomination is whether an incumbent is seeking renomination. Technically speaking, there is not an incumbent seeking the GOP presidential nomination. But this
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