Over the last year we’ve witnessed a familiar pattern: Trump does or says something controversial/contentious/reprehensible (think: attacks on Judge Curiel and the Khan family), his poll numbers plummet and talk ensues about a Hillary Clinton “landslide” and a down ballot wipe out. The #nevertrump groupies engage in Twitter schadenfreude at Trump's assured destruction. Then, like clockwork, the race stabilizes. Polling in down-ballot contests shows little to no “Trump drag.” Trump himself stops making things worse. His campaign forces him off Twitter and onto a teleprompter. Most important, something bad happens with/to Hillary Clinton. Her emails or her health or the Clinton Foundation take center stage. The deep well of distrust about Clinton re-emerges as a focal point. The GOP reunites and the race returns to a one to three point lead for Clinton and Senate and House contests remain localized. But, with less than a month out from the election, with voters actually voting and with Trump seemingly more focused on an all-base, all the time strategy, is the pattern going to be broken? Has this race really hit a

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