With only three weeks remaining until the Iowa caucuses, the race looks like a dead heat. According to the Real Clear Politics polling average Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are within four points of each other. Amy Klobuchar has also climbed steadily in the polls. Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang have each invested heavily in television ads in the state, perhaps hoping to capitalize on positive publicity they have received elsewhere. All told, we have seen $59M spent in the state, with still several weeks remaining for candidates to invest in their messaging. New Hampshire’s primary, only a week later, is nearly as tight and has already seen $34M in advertising. As noted by FiveThirtyEight in October, only Bill Clinton has ever won the Democratic nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. Though this year certainly may prove to be an exception to this rule, no doubt winning one or both states provides a vital launching pad for a campaign.
Through the end of 2019, Iowa received the lion’s share of candidate attention, with
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