In early July, Advertising Analytics released our 2020 political spending forecast covering all federal, state, and down ballot races. Our forecast predicts approximately $6 billion in paid media designed to influence voters and the outcomes of major elections across the United States.
Since our forecast is built on historical spending data for more than 2,000 individual races, we can predict ad spending within actual race types: House, Senate, Gubernatorial, and Presidential. It is no surprise that the Presidential race will dominate with more than $2.7 billion in total spending. We believe the Presidential primary election will see approximately $970 million, mostly on the Democratic side, and the Presidential general election will witness $1.7 billion in paid media spending.
Paid media spending in U.S. House races will be approximately $1 billion and will focus on the 90 most competitive races. Where will this money go and which campaigns will benefit? That is a constant moving target based on the likelihood of victory for either party. This past week saw a few early benefits for the House Democrats.
Texas and Georgia are
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.