This article was originally published for the National Journal on May 1, 2023.

With Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin’s announcement Monday afternoon that he would not seek a fourth term in Maryland, all eyes are likely to turn, at least briefly, to Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan, who left office in January. Cardin’s decision to retire was not much of a surprise. Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governor editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, alerted me over a month ago that this was likely coming, as Cardin had ceased most fundraising.

There is no question that Maryland is a very Democratic state. President Biden won there 65 to 32 percent in 2020, Hillary Clinton won 60 to 34 percent in 2016, and President Obama won with 62 percent in both 2008 and 2012. Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Chris Van Hollen pulled 65 and 66 percent, respectively, in their contests this past November. But at the same time, Hogan was elected by a vote of 51 to 47 percent in 2014 and reelected by 55 to 44 percent

More from the Cook Political Report