Democrats got their second major Senate retirement in as many weeks, with Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith announcing she wouldn’t run for reelection in 2026.
In our initial 2026 Senate ratings released on Tuesday, we had started this contest in Likely Democrat. Now that the seat is open, we are shifting our rating to Lean Democrat, moving it into a more competitive category and giving Republicans yet another pickup opportunity on a difficult map for Democrats.
Like with Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, Smith’s decision comes as a surprise. Minnesota Public Radio noted that just last week on their Politics Friday show she reiterated her intention to seek reelection. Smith, the former lieutenant governor, was appointed to the Senate in 2018 following the resignation of Democratic Sen. Al Franken amid allegations of sexual misconduct. She won a special election later that year and was reelected in 2020.
While Republicans haven’t won a Senate race here since 2002, and haven’t won a statewide election since 2006, the state has shifted a bit toward the GOP over the past three presidential elections. One Minnesota
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