Democrats began this cycle with their toughest map in decades, having to defend the red states of West Virginia, Montana and Ohio — in addition to a handful of other presidential battleground states.
Less than two months before Election Day, they are defying political gravity in some key states, such as Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. But glaring problems remain in those deep red states. With the now-open seat in West Virginia sitting in Solid Republican, the map begins at 50-50 for Democrats. That means that if former President Trump wins, Republicans will already have the majority.
But today we are making a major shift — moving the Montana Senate race from Toss Up to Lean Republican. This means that Republicans are now an even heavier favorite to win back control of the Senate, regardless of the result at the top of the ticket.
Montana Sen. Jon Tester has been a political unicorn for nearly two decades, but in a presidential year with an even more polarized electorate, he is now the underdog heading into the final stretch of the race
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.