Democrats face an incredibly challenging 2024 Senate map that has them almost entirely on defense. While our three Toss Up races have remained constant and fairly obvious for some months now — Ohio, Montana and Arizona — we have mulled over whether any of the other competitive contests in the Lean Democrat column deserve a more vulnerable rating.

It’s quite possible all four could eventually move into the Toss Up column, reflecting even more peril for Senate Democrats. But as we look at the most recent polling numbers and trends in the presidential race, we now believe it is time for another Democrat to join the Toss Up ranks: Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen.

The Nevada shift may be a bit surprising. After all, it’s the only one of the swing states Democrats carried in both 2016 and 2020 at the presidential level, and Republicans haven’t won a statewide federal race here since 2012. And of the quartet now in Toss Up, it is still probably the toughest.

But remember that the 2022 Senate race was the closest in the country,

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