It’s been 22 years since New Mexico sent Republican Pete Domenici back to Congress’ upper chamber in a 30-point rout. Now, his daughter Nella is waging a Senate campaign of her own — and she’s hoping the family surname will help turn this sleepy sideshow into a top-tier tussle.

Republicans’ optimism stems from some reasonably convincing back-of-the-envelope math: About 43% of New Mexico’s citizen voting-age population is Hispanic, the highest share of any state. As President Joe Biden shows signs of slippage with Hispanic voters nationwide, New Mexico may become uniquely fertile ground for GOP inroads. That could whittle Biden’s 11-point win in 2020 down to single digits this November — headwinds weak enough for a moderate Republican with a familiar brand to overcome.

But Democrats insist that’s a vast oversimplification, pointing to two-term Sen. Martin Heinrich’s decisive cash-on-hand advantage ($4.4 million to her $1.1 million as of May 15) and down-ballot Democrats’ recent track record of outpolling the president. Plus, Democrats have the power of polarization on their side: Since 2016, just one state — Maine in 2020 —

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