Hours after voting to defy President Donald Trump on his signature “One Big Beautiful Bill” legislation, North Carolina GOP Sen. Thom Tillis announced he wasn’t running again in 2026.
The surprise move from Tillis moves this race into the Toss Up category and officially makes the Tar Heel State Democrats’ top pickup opportunity. The contest was already edging in this direction, but we had been awaiting former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s decision about whether to challenge Tillis.
The vulnerability of this seat, however, does not alter the overall Senate math for 2026. Even if Democrats were to win here in 2026, they’d still need to flip three more seats, including at least two in deep red states, in order to win a bare majority.
Cooper — who would likely clear the Democratic field if he runs — faces the prospect of a much easier open seat contest, while Republicans could have to sort out a messy primary field to succeed Tillis that is sure to produce a nominee further to the right than the outgoing GOP senator.
In a
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.