Democrats are hoping that 2026 looks a lot like 2018, when voter backlash to President Donald Trump helped them break the GOP’s trifecta.
But 2018 is also a cautionary tale for Senate Democrats. Even though Democrats flipped 41 seats to win control of the House, they ultimately lost two Senate seats.
While this cycle’s map isn’t as challenging as the 2018 cycle — they’re not defending any deep red states like Missouri, Indiana or North Dakota — the seats up next year aren’t particularly friendly to Democrats. And while it’s a long time until November 2026, the challenge for Democrats to net the four seats necessary to win back the majority looks herculean.
Republicans are defending more seats overall — 22 states (including two special elections) to just 13 for Democrats — but that imbalance doesn’t give Democrats an early edge.
First, two Senate seats sit in Toss Up, and both are held by Democrats. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia is the most endangered incumbent overall in a state Trump carried by two points. And Sen. Gary Peters’ surprise retirement
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