For the party that holds the White House, midterm elections come in three sizes: kinda bad, really bad, and really, really, really bad.
The political environment and opinions of the incumbent president are the two biggest factors for determining just how ugly things get for the party in power.
But, when it comes to races for the Senate, the map and candidate quality play an outsized role as well.
This year, Democrats’ best opportunity on paper is in Maine, a blue state that Kamala Harris carried by almost seven points. You would think we’d see a boatload of ambitious Democrats, eager to ride the wave of midterm mojo, champing at the bit to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
Well, think again.
A truism in midterm elections is that no matter how strong the political tailwind, if the seats up that year are politically inhospitable, the party out of power will fall short of roaring success. And it’s also the case that past presidential performance, while more predictive than ever, is not foolproof.
In 2018, for example, Democrats managed to defend
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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