The battle for the Senate fundamentally ends where the cycle began — with an overwhelmingly favorable map that very likely portends a GOP majority.
But the size of that majority is still up in the air. If Republicans sweep the “Blue Wall” states, which have all tightened in the final weeks, they could reach as high as 54 or 55 seats — a cushion for a tougher 2026 midterm cycle. However, if they only attain a narrow 51 or 52 seat majority, look for moderates like Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Maine Sen. Susan Collins to wield outsized influence in the next Congress.
Democrats believe even if Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly loses in key swing states, their battle-tested members are still well-positioned to outrun her showing and hold on. This cycle has shown us that candidate quality still matters, and so does early spending, which is why Democrats remain on strong footing even as they’re facing late headwinds.
The late emergence of races in Texas and Nebraska does throw an air of uncertainty into our projections. We are cognizant
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