Republicans will have, at minimum, a 53-47 Senate majority come January 2025. There are two races yet uncalled: Arizona and Nevada. Democrats are currently leading in both. If that holds, it results in a four-seat net pickup — right within the range of two to five seats that we projected last week.
In talking with strategists of both parties and looking at what vote is still outstanding, we expect Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen will narrowly prevail thanks to late absentee ballots that have largely been breaking Democrats’ way. In Arizona, with much of Maricopa County yet to report, along with other rural areas, the margin could tighten, but we don’t expect Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego to lose his lead over GOP nominee Kari Lake.
In Pennsylvania, the Associated Press has called the race for Republican David McCormick, who is still leading Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by about 31,000 votes as of this writing. Democrats express optimism that late-arriving absentee ballots in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, along with provisional ballots, will narrow the edge, and Casey is not yet conceding. But there
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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