We are just over two weeks from Election Day, and the calmer winds that Democrats thought might improbably save them back in August and early September have switched course. While summer decisions to reverse Roe v. Wade and legislative successes for Democrats have helped motivate their once-dormant voting base, the economic news that had gotten better a few months ago has now swung back to helping Republicans. Given inflation and rising gas prices — and simple historical trends that long predicted trouble for Democrats — the snap isn’t surprising, and it is one we previously wrote would not be unusual.

But given those increasing indicators — including shifts toward Republicans on the generic ballot — this is still an unpredictable environment that could produce a slightly out-of-the-norm result. We expect turnout to be incredibly high across the board, possibly eclipsing records set in 2018. That was a blue wave year — but because of the horrid Senate map they were saddled with, Democrats still lost a net of two seats, though that margin could have been much worse.

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