With two weeks to go until Election Day, the Senate map still favors Republicans. Montana Sen. Jon Tester remains the likeliest Democrat to lose reelection, which along with the GOP’s certain pickup in West Virginia, would get Republicans to 51 seats. But the trio of “Blue Wall” states are getting tighter for Democrats as well.
The next tier of four races in our Toss Up column will likely determine the size of a GOP majority. Historically, most of the contests in this column have broken one way, and we wouldn't be shocked to see that happen again.
Ohio remains the toughest for Democrats in this column, and Republicans are enthused by their own polling showing Republican challenger Bernie Moreno opening up a small lead. However, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to lead by a small margin in other surveys and still very much has a chance.
We recently moved Wisconsin into Toss Up, and we view the Badger State as the GOP’s next best chance as a flip. Michigan also remains tighter in internal polls than public surveys show, but
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.