As Democrats struggle to keep their slim Senate majority — and as Montana continues to slip from their grip — they must find new offensive targets to maintain a plausible path to 50 seats.
For months, the two GOP-held seats on the verge of competitiveness have been Texas and Florida, which have uniquely polarizing incumbents in Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, respectively. But both states have remained just out of reach for Democrats in recent years, and could be even tougher for Democrats to win in a presidential year than in a midterm cycle.
Both have sat in our Likely Republican column, and Democrats announced last week that they are making a “multimillion dollar investment” for TV advertising in both races. We’ve seen the Texas buys show up so far in coordinated spending, but further spending, or the total amount they’re going to invest, hasn’t been revealed.
As Florida has been moving away from Democrats — it was the only state where then-President Donald Trump increased his margins from 2016 (1.2 points) to 2020 (3.3 points) — Texas has
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