The 2024 election has already been historic in a number of ways, but November could mark another recent electoral oddity — a rise in ticket-splitting between presidential and Senate races.
New data from the Cook Political Report/GS Strategy Group/BSG Swing State Project polling shows Democratic Senate candidates continuing to run strong in every single swing presidential state, far outpacing Vice President Kamala Harris and leading outside the margin of error in races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
As we wrote last week, with Harris now leading the Democratic ticket, the margin by which Senate candidates must outrun the top of the ticket has shrunk — even though our last set of polls showed Democratic incumbents faring well even while President Joe Biden was struggling atop the ballot.
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But now Democrats have increased their vote share in every Senate race since we last tested the contests in May. They’ve also increased their margin in every race except Wisconsin, which has tightened from a 12-point to a seven-point contest.
The surge has been particularly large in
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