All year, we’ve been tracking a defining datapoint of 2024: the divergent political behavior of “high-engagement” voters — the most civic-minded folks who show up in every presidential, midterm, primary and school board race — and more peripherally-engaged voters who are less ideological and don’t eat, sleep and breathe politics or cable news but nevertheless show up to vote in presidential years. Our final poll of the seven key battleground states shows this gap persisting, with Vice President Kamala Harris maintaining her edge with the former group but former President Donald Trump standing to benefit if November sees higher turnout among the latter.
For purposes of our swing state polling project in conjunction with BSG and GS Strategy Group, we’ve divided the likely 2024 electorate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin into three groups: 1) “high-engagement” voters who voted in all of the past four federal elections or voted in the 2022 midterms if they registered after 2020 (60% of the likely electorate in our September poll), 2) “low/mid-engagement” voters who skipped at least one of
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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