A defining data point of 2024 has been the divergent behavior of “high-engagement” voters — the most civic-minded voters who show up reliably in every presidential, midterm, primary and special election — and more peripherally-engaged voters who don’t eat, sleep and breathe politics or cable news but still show up to vote in presidential years. However, Kamala Harris’ strides with the latter group has fundamentally redefined this year’s election.
Back in May, our swing state polling project found President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 49%-45% among high-engagement voters in the seven battleground states, but trailing 41%-51% among low/mid-engagement voters and 33%-43% among new registrants. Today, Harris is leading 50%-46% among high-engagement voters — the same margin by which Biden led in May — but holding Trump to just a 48%-45% lead among low/mid-engagement voters and a 50%-46% lead among new registrants since 2022.
For purposes of our swing state polling project in conjunction with BSG and GS Strategy Group, we divided the likely 2024 electorate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin into three groups:
- “High-engagement” voters
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