Trump’s Tap Dance With Chuck and Nancy Comes at a Price

There seems little question that President Trump has enjoyed his September dalliance with the two top Democratic leaders in Congress, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Aside from the Supreme Court confirmation of Neil Gorsuch, which isn’t technically legislation, this is the only significant legislative victory the president has had this year.

Trott Retirement Moves MI-11 from Likely Republican to Toss Up

This morning, Michigan Rep. Dave Trott became the third Republican in five days to announce he will retire from a marginal seat in 2018. Unlike Reps. Charlie Dent (PA-15) and Dave Reichert (WA-08), Trott is only in his second term and was already vulnerable after receiving 53 percent in 2016. Furthermore, Democrats already have a potentially strong candidate running: former Obama administration Auto Task Force chief of staff Haley Stevens.

Reichert Retirement Moves WA-08 to Toss Up

If Democrats could have picked one House GOP incumbent to retire in 2018, it would have been GOP Rep. Dave Reichert, who represents a suburban Seattle seat Hillary Clinton won by three points, but has cruised to reelection on the strength of his reputation as the former King County sheriff. Today, Democrats got their wish. Reichert's exit moves Washington's 8th District all the way from Likely Republican to the Toss Up column.

ME-02: Poliquin Moves to Lean Republican

Democrats haven't been able to crack the code in Maine's blue-collar 2nd CD since Rep. Mike Michaud left to run for governor in 2014. Once a Democratic bastion, the district swung hard to GOP Gov. Paul LePage in 2014 and President Trump in 2016, and Republican Bruce Poliquin defied expectations. But Marine veteran and state Rep. Jared Golden's entry into the 2018 field gives Democrats hope they can capitalize on a favorable political environment.

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