About the Swing State Project
The Swing State Project is a collaboration between the Cook Political Report, BSG, and the GS Strategy Group. Our goal is to better understand how voters in the seven key battleground states are evaluating the many cross-pressures of the presidential and down-ballot races in their states. In an election that features two well-known but unpopular candidates, we explore: How are voters deciding which of the “lesser of two evils” candidates they can support? What trade-offs are they willing to make — or not make — with their choice of candidate? How are their views on priorities changing — or not — over time? Which groups of voters are the most up for grabs?
The Cook Political Report is partnering with two top notch polling firms — one aligned with the Democratic party (BSG), the other with the GOP (GS Strategy Group) — who have well-earned reputations for helping campaigns navigate the complicated landscape of winning the support of voters outside their party.
The Cook Political Report is partnering with two top notch polling firms — one aligned with the Democratic party (BSG), the other with the GOP (GS Strategy Group) — who have well-earned reputations for helping campaigns navigate the complicated landscape of winning the support of voters outside their party.
New: CPR 2024 National Polling Average
In today’s polling landscape, it can feel dizzying to make sense of conflicting numbers and differing methodologies various pollsters use.
Response rates to traditional live-interview surveys remain low. Some polls test a two-way matchup, while others include third-party candidates as named options. Should polls taken for campaigns or outside groups — many of whom are invested in getting it right to determine where to allocate their resources, others just out to spin — be taken as seriously as those by unaffiliated media outlets? And are some polling averages “flooded” by new or fly-by-night polling outfits who lack a track record and are less than transparent about their approaches?
Though there aren’t necessarily “right” or “wrong” answers to these questions, The Cook Political Report’s Harris vs. Trump national polling average tracks the 2024 presidential race via a curated average of national polls conducted by 21 nonpartisan/bipartisan pollsters we consider reputable and transparent.
Response rates to traditional live-interview surveys remain low. Some polls test a two-way matchup, while others include third-party candidates as named options. Should polls taken for campaigns or outside groups — many of whom are invested in getting it right to determine where to allocate their resources, others just out to spin — be taken as seriously as those by unaffiliated media outlets? And are some polling averages “flooded” by new or fly-by-night polling outfits who lack a track record and are less than transparent about their approaches?
Though there aren’t necessarily “right” or “wrong” answers to these questions, The Cook Political Report’s Harris vs. Trump national polling average tracks the 2024 presidential race via a curated average of national polls conducted by 21 nonpartisan/bipartisan pollsters we consider reputable and transparent.
Latest Articles
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.