In collaboration with Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, BSG conducted polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin among likely 2024 voters from May 6-13, 2024. Surveys were conducted in English using SMS-to-Web and online panel methodologies.

In the aggregate, 3,969 likely voters across the 7 states completed the survey, for a margin of sampling error of ±1.6 at the 95% confidence level. The full dataset included:

  • 527 likely 2024 voters in Arizona (±4.3)
  • 600 likely 2024 voters in Georgia (±4.0)
  • 606 likely 2024 voters in Michigan (±4.0)
  • 402 likely 2024 voters in Nevada (±4.9)
  • 601 likely 2024 voters in North Carolina (±4.0)
  • 730 likely 2024 voters in Pennsylvania (±3.6)
  • 503 likely 2024 voters in Wisconsin (±4.4)

For the purposes of this research, likely voters were defined as anyone who is currently registered to vote and has voted in at least 1 of the last 4 presidential or midterm elections, or registered to vote after the 2020 general election for president.

Respondents were allowed to participate in the survey regardless of their self-reported likelihood to vote, as many respondents to indicate in survey that they “possibly will vote,” “don’t know” if they will vote, or even say they “absolutely will not vote” do ultimately participate in the election they were asked about. In this survey:

  • 72% indicated they are “absolutely certain” to vote
  • 13% indicated they are “very likely” to vote
  • 8% indicated they “possibly will vote”
  • 4% indicated they “absolutely will not vote”
  • 4% indicated they don’t know if they will vote or not

The results were weighted in each state to reflect the likely 2024 voter universe. In the combined data, states were weighted based on electoral votes.