Increasingly, 2024 is a tale of two electorates: not just left versus right or white versus nonwhite, but high-engagement versus low-engagement. And, it’s a major reversal from the past.
During the Obama era, it was generally true that Democrats performed better when more people voted (remember the “rising American electorate” of young and nonwhite new registrants in 2008 and 2012?). But so far, the defining data point of the 2020s may be that former President Donald Trump is performing the best with the most peripherally-engaged voters. Meanwhile, Democrats have made huge gains among the most civic-minded voters who not only show up in presidential years, but reliably vote in midterms, primaries and special elections as well.
For purposes of our swing state polling project in conjunction with BSG and GS Strategies, we divided the likely 2024 electorate in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin into three groups:
- “High-engagement” voters who voted in all four of the past four federal elections or voted in the 2022 midterms if they registered after 2020 (52% of the electorate)
- “Low/mid-engagement” voters who skipped at least one of the past four federal elections (34% of the electorate)
- New registrants since 2020, including some who may have recently moved between states (13% of the electorate)
Our findings across the Electoral College battleground broadly confirm similar results from NORC/University of Pennsylvania and New York Times/Siena College that there’s a growing “participation gap” in presidential preferences: in the two-way ballot test, President Joe Biden is leading 49%-45% among “high engagement” voters. However, Trump leads 51%-41% among “low-mid engagement” voters and 43%-33% among new registrants.
In terms of news consumption, low/mid-engagement voters and new registrants were considerably more likely to say they get their news from Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), TikTok or YouTube and less likely to get their news from local TV news stations or close friends/family. And they’re far more open to supporting a third-party candidate in a five-way ballot test: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein take a combined 15% of low/mid-engagement voters and 19% of new registrants, versus 8% of high-engagement voters.
But our survey of nearly 4,000 respondents across these seven swing states also afforded us the opportunity to dive deeper into the makeup of these groups and what’s driving vastly different attitudes across these cohorts. Here are five key takeaways from the data:
1. “High engagement” voters are older and whiter than “low/mid-engagement” voters, but they’re far more likely to be sticking with Biden.
The most engaged cohort of voters is 78% white (compared to 71% of low/mid and 59% of new registrants) and 39% are at least 65 years old (compared to 16% of low/mid and 7% of new registrants). But they’re also backing Biden by four points, while Trump is carrying low/mid-engagement voters by ten points. A big reason? Roughly half of high-engagement voters have a college degree (48%), versus 32% of low/mid and just 18% of new registrants.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that although Biden is doing better with this “whiter” cohort, the partisan engagement gap transcends racial/ethnic lines and that highly-engaged voters of color are one of his best audiences. Among highly-engaged Black voters, for example, Biden leads Trump 75%-17%. But among low/mid-engagement Black voters and Black new registrants, Biden leads just 57%-26%.
2. “Low/mid-engagement” voters and new registrants explain virtually all of Democrats’ down-ballot overperformance relative to Biden.
On the generic congressional (House) ballot, Democrats lead 49%-45% among high-engagement voters, identical to Biden’s lead on the two-way ballot. But Republicans lead among low/mid-engagement voters just 46%-40%, underperforming Trump’s ten point margin by four points. Among new registrants, the parties are tied at 34%, in contrast to Trump’s ten point lead at the top of the ticket.
In other words, lower-engagement voters are down on Biden, but they’re not ready to embrace Republicans across the board. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in Senate races: for example, in Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by six points among low/mids, even wider than his four point lead among high-engagement voters. And in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Democratic Sens. Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin enjoy virtually the same leads among low/mids as among their high-engagement counterparts.
3. “Low/mid-engagement” voters are fundamentally pocketbook voters.
Among low/mids, 78% rank the economy/cost of living/inflation as a top voting concern, versus 71% among high-engagement voters. Low/mids were also slightly less likely than their higher engagement peers to rank immigration/border security (52% vs. 55%), abortion (33% vs. 35%), foreign policy (29% vs. 32%) and the future of democracy (32% vs. 36%) as one of their top concerns.
And, low/mids hold much more pessimistic views of the economy than highly engaged voters. Just 19% of low/mids say the economy is getting better while 68% who say it’s getting worse (among highly-engaged, the gap was considerably narrower at 29% to 58%). And, they were much likelier than high-engagement voters to describe their personal financial situation as making them feel anxious (29% vs. 23%), frustrated (34% vs. 27%) or depressed (22% to 15%).
4. “Low/mid-engagement” voters have more serious concerns about Biden's age.
Among low/mids, 72% say Biden won't be able to finish a second term, versus 64% of high-engagement voters. And whereas high-engagement are evenly split between 50% who are more concerned about "Joe Biden's age and ability to perform his duties" and 50% are more concerned about "Donald Trump's temperament and legal problems," 56% of low/mids are more concerned about Biden’s age and capabilities than Trump’s behavior and indictments.
5. Despite their lean towards Trump, “low/mid-engagement” voters are more likely than highly-engaged voters to disapprove of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
An overwhelming 65% of low/mids and 68% of new registrants disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a constitutional guarantee to a right to an abortion, compared to just 60% of high-engagement voters.
But when asked how they felt about Trump’s position that “abortion should be left up to each individual state,” 53% of low/mids say Trump’s position is “about right” while 35% say it’s “too restrictive,” versus 49% of highly engaged voters who say it’s “about right” and 40% who say it’s too restrictive. In other words, lower-engagement voters are strongly pro-choice when asked, but at least so far, they don’t find Trump’s position objectionable and view cost of living/inflation as an overriding concern.
Bottom line: It’s likely many of these low-engagement voters, including many who hold dim views of both Biden and Trump, will ultimately leave the presidential ballot blank, cast a protest vote for a third-party candidate or not vote at all. But to the extent they do show up, this survey suggests more upside for Trump across the Electoral College battleground. In other words, a lower-turnout scenario likely represents Biden’s best chance of winning a second term.
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