A silver lining for Democrats in the recent Cook Political Report/GS Strategies/BSG Swing State Project polling is the strength of Senate Democrats in key swing states. Senate candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not only outperforming President Joe Biden, but are also leading their GOP opponents by anywhere from two to 12 points.

Notably, incumbent Democrats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada are running the farthest ahead of Biden, while Democratic candidates in open senate seats in Arizona and Michigan have marginally better numbers than Biden.

One reason for the dramatic difference between the Senate and presidential margins is that Democratic incumbents are better known than their GOP opponents. For example, in Wisconsin, Biden is tied with former President Donald Trump at 45%, while two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads her relatively unknown Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, by 12 points. Even so, Baldwin is taking a larger percentage of the vote than Biden — 49% to Biden’s 45%. In other words, it’s more than just a name ID advantage that is helping Senate Democratic candidates.

In digging through

More from the Cook Political Report

CPR 2024 National Polling Average
Cook Politcal Logo
First Person
Cook Politcal Logo