The rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump has been so static for much of 2024 that it’s felt as if it were due for something seismic to happen. At this writing, there’s still a substantially greater-than-zero chance that a different Democrat could end up appearing atop the November ballot. But every day Biden continues to defy calls from his own party to withdraw from the race in the wake of a disastrous debate performance, the odds of an earthquake on the Democratic side diminish.

So, where does the race really stand in the wake of the CNN debate and the past few weeks’ reckoning? In today’s polling landscape, it can feel dizzying to make sense of conflicting numbers and differing methodologies various pollsters use.

Response rates to traditional live-interview surveys remain low. Some polls test a two-way matchup, while others include third-party candidates as named options. Should polls taken for campaigns or outside groups — many of whom are invested in getting it right to determine where to allocate their resources, others just out to spin

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