Louisiana Governor2019

For Republicans, this race is the one that got away in 2015. The combination of an unpopular outgoing Republican Governor and a scandal-plagued nominee in then-U.S. David Vitter cost Republicans this seat as Democrat John Bel Edwards bested Vitter, 56 percent to 44 percent, in a solidly red state.

The two parties have very different perspectives on this race. Democrats say that Edwards is in good shape going into the race. He has turned a $2 billion budget deficit into a surplus, expanded Medicaid, and signed criminal justice reform legislation. Edwards says that the state is more business-friendly, and points a low unemployment rate and the highest personal income level in history as evidence. He will campaign on raising the minimum wage, continued improvements to the state’s water supplies and education.

Republicans contend that Edwards broke a campaign promise not to raise taxes when he pushed through increases in the sales and tobacco taxes. They further argue that Medicaid expansion has been plagued by mismanagement, and the economy isn’t as rosy as Democrats say it is, pointing out that Louisiana’s economy ranks 48th and that at 4.9 percent, the state’s unemployment rate remains higher the national rate of 3.8 percent.

There are currently two Republican candidates in the race: U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone. Abraham, who has the distinction of being both a veterinarian and a physician, was elected to the House in 2014, representing the 5th congressional district located in the northeast corner of the state. The district has a PVI of R+15, meaning that it votes 15 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Rispone campaigns on his blue-collar upbringing and characterizes himself as a business-oriented Christian conservative. He built a large specialty construction company with 3,000 employees and about $350 million in annual revenue. Rispone, who supports school vouchers programs, funded television ads in 2016 criticizing Edwards’ proposed cuts to the state’s voucher program. Not surprisingly, neither Republican is well known statewide and have been focusing their energies on improving their name ID among GOP voters.

The other focus of the race has been fundraising. April 8th marked the start of a mandatory 90-day blackout period for fundraising because the legislature is in session. This rule only applies Edwards’ campaign since he is the only state official in the race; super PACs can still raise money. At the start of the blackout period, Edwards had $10 million in the bank. Rispone says that he has $10.4 million in the bank, much of it came from his own pocket. Abraham has said that he has raised $1 million since entering the race in December, but it’s not known how much he has in the bank.

Today, the odds are better than not that this race will go to a run-off. Under Louisiana’s system, all candidates run on a single ballot regardless of party. If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote getters move on to a run-off. Since the filing deadline isn’t until August 6, this field will inevitably grow. The question is whether another first-tier candidate decides to run. The “primary” is scheduled for October 12, and the run-off is November 16.

The race is in the Lean Democrat column.

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