House Ratings Summary
Updated: Jun 18, 2018
Solid Seats
D - 180
R - 157
Likely/Lean Seats
D - 21
R - 53
Topline: The current House breakdown is 238 Republicans and 193 Democrats with four vacancies (two Republican and two Democratic). Democrats would need a net gain of 23 seats in November to retake the majority. President Trump's low approval ratings and Democratic voters' heightened enthusiasm are seriously testing Republicans' structural advantages in the House, including incumbency and favorably drawn districts. A near-record number of Republican open seats and a new court-ordered congressional map in Pennsylvania have further weakened the GOP's position. Republicans' ability to keep their majority now depends on their ability to define individual Democrats as unacceptable alternatives on a race-by-race basis. But at the moment, Democrats are modest favorites for House control and could pick up anywhere from 25 to 40 seats.
Senate Ratings Summary
Updated: Dec 12, 2016
Senate Seats
D - 49
I - 0
R - 51
Topline: This cycle’s 34 U.S. Senate contests provide a good window into the two conflicting trends at play this year: the political environment versus the political map. With a Senate almost evenly divided at 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats, Democrats need a net gain of just two seats to win the majority. Of the 34 races, Democrats hold 26 compared to just eight for Republicans. The political environment – President Trump’s low job approval ratings and the Democrats’ advantage on the generic congressional ballot test – coupled with the history of the party in power losing seats all tilt toward Democrats. The political map, though, favors Republicans since Democrats are defending 10 seats in states that Trump carried in 2016. The clash of these two trends means that Republicans’ targets are more limited than those 10 Democratic-held suggest, while Democrats have two solid targets among the eight Republican-held seats. They have worked to expand the playing field by lining up credible candidates in a couple of long-shot races in the event a tsunami-level wave develops. The result is that number of gains or losses are limited. At this point, the most likely outcome is +/- one seat for Democrats. It is entirely possible that Democrats can win the two seats they need to win the majority, but that would require that they hold all of their own seats.
Governor Ratings Summary
Updated: Nov 14, 2016
Governors
D - 15
I - 1
R - 34
Topline: Topline: Republicans currently hold 33 of the 50 governorships, compared to 16 for Democrats and one independent Governor in Alaska. This is the most gubernatorial seats that Republicans have had in their column since 1928. There are 36 gubernatorial contests in 2018. Republicans will defend 26 seats to just nine seats for Democrats. Independent Gov. Bill Walker of Alaska is also up for re-election. At this point, there are 16 open seats, 12 currently held by Republicans and four by Democrats. While every election cycle is important in its own way, this is a critical cycle for both parties since, in most cases, this class of Governors will be in office and have some authority over the redistricting process that will take place in their respective states in 2021 after the 2020 Census is completed. As such, both parties have been focused on this cycle since early in 2015, and will commit a record amount of financial resources to competitive races. By virtue of the number of seats they must defend and a political environment that is tilting toward Democrats, there is little doubt that Republicans will lose seats. Their task is to keep those losses to a minimum. Democrats, on the other hand, are working to expand the map to maximize the potential of big gains. There are a number of races featuring crowded primaries on both sides. For now, it appears that both sides are going to stay out of primaries. While it’s a decision that keeps them on the right side of their respective bases and conserves resources, it also means that many of the 2018 races won’t take shape until the middle of the year. These primaries also make it difficult to come up with a definitive range of gains or losses for each party. Suffice it to say that Democrats would be disappointed if they only score a net gain of four or five seats, while picking up eight to 10 seats would be considered a great success.
Electoral Scorecard
Updated: Nov 7, 2016
Electoral Scorecard
D - 278
I - 46
R - 214