California CA-25 House2018

 Democrats are elated that anti-homelessness non-profit executive Katie Hill advanced to the general election, edging out attorney/2016 nominee Bryan Caforio 20 percent to 18 percent (incumbent GOP Rep. Steve Knight took 53 percent). Knight had survived in 2016 by painting Caforio as a slick downtown LA lawyer and carpetbagger. But Hill, 30, grew up in the district and owns guns and horses.

Even several Republicans admit Hill, a first-time candidate whose first ad featured her climbing a vertical rock face, presents a problematic contrast for Knight. Knight, a former police officer and the son of a famed fighter pilot, is a dyed-in-the-wool sophomore conservative with an in-your-face reputation (in 2015, he told a protester "I'll drop your ass") sitting in a district that voted for Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent.

The 25th CD is anchored by northern Los Angeles County and is getting more diverse (38 percent percent of its residents are Latino) and less Republican every year. But culturally, it's worlds apart from downtown Los Angeles. Despite its growth, Santa Clarita likes to think of itself as a small town, and the nearby Antelope Valley is lower-income and heavily dependent on agriculture. That's why Hill's roots matter.

Democrats will go after Knight's votes in favor of the GOP's healthcare and tax plans, saying he voted to eliminate deductions for wildfire damage. Meanwhile, Republicans need to find an effective attack on Hill. In the primary, Caforio blasted her for her six-figure non-profit salary and the living conditions at several of her organization's homeless shelters, but the attacks backfired on the corporate attorney.

Money could also be a problem for Republicans. So far, Hill has outraised Knight $2.4 million to $1.7 million with the help of EMILY's List and the LGBTQ Victory Fund (Hill identifies as bisexual). Democrats' biggest challenge may be turning out Latino voters in a non-presidential year. It's a Toss Up, but that may be slightly generous to Knight.

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