HOUSE

New Jersey NJ-07 House2018

RACE AT A GLANCE

SEAT FLIPPED

Tom Malinowski

RACE WINNER

Tom Malinowski

Seat flipped

RACE TYPE

Incumbent running

Leonard Lance (R)

RACE RATING

Last updated : Mar 16, 2018
Lean R
Toss Up

COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX

Last updated : Apr 3, 2018
D +50
R +50
R +3

Key Dates

Filing Deadline: Apr 2, 2018

Primary Election: Jun 5, 2018

INCUMBENT

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First Elected: Sign in to view

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INCUMBENT

Leonard Lance

First Elected: 2008

Last General Election: 54.1%

Last Primary Election: 53.9%

Full Bio:
LANCE, Leonard, a Representative from New Jersey; born in Easton, Northampton County, Pa., June 25, 1952; graduated from North Hunterdon Regional High School, Annandale, N.J., 1970; B.A., Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pa., 1974; J.D., Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tenn., 1977; M.P.A., Princeton University, Princeton, N.J., 1982; judicial clerk; lawyer, private practice; member of the New Jersey state general assembly, 1991-2002; member of the New Jersey state senate, 2002-2009, minority leader, 2004-2008; unsuccessful candidate for election to the United States House of Representatives in 1996; elected as a Republican to the One Hundred Eleventh and to the four succeeding Congresses (January 3, 2009-present).

Source: Bioguide

CANDIDATES

Democrats

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Independents / Other Parties

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DISTRICT DATA

New Jersey - 07

North central: Westfield, Bridgewater, Hunterdon County 

Population Breakdown

Source: American Community Survey 2015

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    xx.x%
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    xx.x%
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    xx.x%
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    xx.xx%

Past Presidential Results from this District

2016 Election Results

Source: Dave's Redistricting/VEST

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    xx.x%
    xx votes
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    xx.x%
    xx votes

2012 Election Results

Source:

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    xx.x%
    xx votes
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    xx.x%
    xx votes

RACE ANALYSIS

The Bottom Line

Updated: Aug 24, 2018

Lance, a throwback to northeastern GOP moderates of yesteryear, has typically faced his biggest challenges in primaries. But after the 7th CD voted for Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 48 percent, his main 2018 concern will be the general. Lance hasn't shied away from town halls and voted against the health care bill and final GOP tax bill, but Democrats will still seek to tie him to the larger Republican agenda.

In June, Democrats nominated Tom Malinowski, a Polish-born former Rhodes Scholar who just moved into the district from Princeton. The former Washington director of Human Rights Watch served as Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights under President Obama. His story of "blowing the whistle" on Russian election interference in the final days of the Obama administration has raised $2.3 million to Lance's $1.5 million.

Republicans will call Malinowski a "Princeton elitist" who espouses far-left foreign policy positions. They're also encouraged that GOP gubernatorial nominee Kim Guadagno carried the 7th CD last November and that ethically tarnished Sen. Bob Menendez tops Democrats' ticket. But white-collar central New Jersey is now questioning its allegiance to the GOP in the era of Trump, and private polls suggest a Toss Up.

Race Analysis

Updated: Jun 10, 2026

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