South Carolina SC-01 House2018

In June, defense contractor and conservative state Rep. Katie Arrington unseated Trump critic and GOP Rep. Mark Sanford in the Republican primary, 51 percent to 47 percent. Ten days later, Arrington suffered serious injuries in a car accident that left another person dead, putting the fall campaign on hold. But now the race is back on, and Democrats could capitalize on a powerful Lowcountry wedge issue: offshore drilling.

Arrington underwent multiple surgeries for rib and spinal fractures and left the hospital on July 6. As tragic as the incident was, the extensive local media coverage of Arrington's trauma and recovery likely boosted the GOP nominee's name ID significantly. But Democratic attorney and ocean engineer Joe Cunningham, who suspended his campaign while Arrington was in the hospital, has room to grow.

This coastal, highly college-educated Lowcountry district voted for President Trump 53 percent to 41 percent, but it's full of northern transplants who have relocated to Hilton Head and the Charleston suburbs and consider themselves moderate Republicans. Democrats believe Cunningham's path involves cobbling together a coalition of energized Democrats and moderate, pro-Sanford Republicans.

Cunningham, a first-time candidate who is married to a yoga studio owner, says he won't vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. But the potential explosiveness of the offshore drilling issue is what makes this race in an R+10 district unique.

During the GOP primary, Arrington appeared to support the president's proposal to lift an offshore drilling ban. Arrington now denies she ever expressed support for drilling off South Carolina's coast, but a month after the primary Sanford called that "a complete lie." Sanford hasn't endorsed Arrington, and notably, the GOP mayors of Folly Beach and Isle of Palms have endorsed Cunningham, the ocean engineer.

One private poll conducted by a reputable pollster depicts a single-digit race, with Arrington short of 50 percent. Arrington self-funded $400,000 in the primary and will likely spend more on ads calling her opponent "Pelosi Joe." But Charleston is a fairly efficient market and Cunningham had a respectable $318,000 on hand to Arrington's $61,000 at the end of June. Arrington still has an advantage, but it's a real race.

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