Virginia VA-02 House2018

Taylor's strong profile as a Navy SEAL and his political base as a state delegate from Virginia Beach helped him unseat GOP Rep. Randy Forbes in the 2016 primary after court-ordered redistricting forced Forbes into an unfamiliar seat. But as President Trump carried this seat by just 48 percent to 45 percent that fall, Taylor didn't have a serious Democratic opponent. That won't be the case in 2018.

Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam carried this district by four points in November 2017, and Taylor admits it was a wake up call. Taylor doesn't come across as an ideologue, but he still isn't well-defined. Democrats knew they needed to find a veteran in this military-dependent district, and they got one in former Naval Surface Warfare Officer and nuclear engineer Elaine Luria, who also owns a plaster mermaid-oriented gifts business.

Luria, who is one of three female Naval Academy graduates from the early 1990s, has a trailblazing story and has raised $1.3 million to Taylor's $2.8 million. So far, most private polls have shown her down single digits. But this month, Taylor committed an unforced error when his campaign staff was caught forging petitions to get 2016 Democratic nominee Shaun Brown on the ballot as an independent "spoiler."

Taylor says he never gave permission to his staff to circulate the petitions, but Democrats are accusing him of dirty tricks and suing to get Brown's name off the ballot. Brown, an African-American, accuses Democrats of trying to disenfranchise her. It's still tied up in courts (and Brown is scheduled to go on trial in October for defrauding the government over a summer meal program for children).

Although Democrats are fired up over the forgery kerfuffle, t's still not clear that voters fully understand it or hold it against Taylor. Taylor's bigger problems could be his votes for the GOP healthcare and tax bills and the lack of a competitive statewide race to drive GOP voters to the polls. It's in Lean Republican for now, but this race has potential to join the Toss Up column.