HOUSE

Texas TX-31 House2020

RACE AT A GLANCE

RACE TYPE

Incumbent running

John Carter (R)

RACE RATING

Last updated : Nov 2, 2020
Likely R
Lean R

COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX

Last updated : Oct 2, 2020
D +50
R +50
R +10

Key Dates

Filing Deadline: Dec 9, 2019

Primary Election: Mar 3, 2020

INCUMBENT

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First Elected: Sign in to view

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INCUMBENT

John Carter

First Elected: 2002

Last General Election: 50.6%

Last Primary Election: 62.2%

Full Bio:
CARTER, John R., a Representative from Texas; born in Houston, Harris County, Tex., November 6, 1941; graduated from Bellaire High School, Houston, Tex., 1960; B.A., Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Tex., 1964; J.D., University of Texas Law School, Austin, Tex., 1969; lawyer, private practice; judge, District Court of Williamson County, Tex., 1981-2001; elected as a Republican to the One Hundred Eighth and to the seven succeeding Congresses (January 3, 2003-present).

Source: Bioguide

CANDIDATES

Democrats

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DISTRICT DATA

Texas - 31

Austin exurbs: Georgetown, Killeen 

Population Breakdown

Source: American Community Survey 2015

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    xx.x%
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    xx.x%
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    xx.x%
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    xx.xx%

Past Presidential Results from this District

2016 Election Results

Source: Dave's Redistricting/VEST

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    xx.x%
    xx votes
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    xx.x%
    xx votes

2012 Election Results

Source:

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    xx.x%
    xx votes
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    xx.x%
    xx votes

RACE ANALYSIS

The Bottom Line

Updated: Nov 2, 2020

DC Democrats wrote off this fast-growing exurban Austin seat when computer engineer and first-time candidate Donna Imam won the July Democratic runoff. Imam, who grew up mostly in New Zealand, has eschewed consultants and refused newspaper interviews, supports Medicare for All and has called for COVID lockdowns without exceptions for grocery stores.

But the I-35 corridor is poised for explosive turnout, and Carter could get caught napping if Trump fails to carry the seat. The 78-year-old beat Democrat M.J. Hegar by just 2.9 points in 2018 and hasn't run any negative ads, allowing Imam to run almost totally under the radar. The irony is that if Hegar were running against Carter again instead of for the Senate, she could be headed to Congress.

Race Analysis

Updated: Jun 11, 2026

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