Arizona Senate2018

The August 28 primary set the field in this race to replace retiring Republican U.S. Jeff Flake.  On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema faced just minor opposition to win the nomination with 81 percent of the vote.  Republicans held a more contentious primary that U.S. Rep. Martha McSally won with 53 percent to 28 percent for physician Kelli Ward and 20 percent for former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.  McSally was always the favorite, but she was forced to move more to the right than her congressional voting record would suggest she is, and she had to embrace President Trump, which will provide Democrats with fodder for the general election.  Because Sinema didn’t have to focus on her primary opponent, she used the time to build an organization and define herself through television ads that touted her moderate issue positions.  As a result, she probably starts the race with a slight edge, but McSally can close the gap.  Until just days before the primary, Sinema had been spared attacks. Those attacks will ramp up now that the primary is over.  GOP strategists contend that Sinema’s resume and record pales put side by side with McSally’s. Of the most competitive Senate races this cycle, McSally and Sinema seem the most evenly matched. Both nominees serve in the House, both represent competitive districts, and both are strong fundraisers.  Sinema was first elected in 2012 to represent the 9th congressional district, which encompasses the central and eastern suburbs of Phoenix, Tempe and western Mesa. It has a Partisan Voting Index of D+4, which means that it votes four points more Democratic than the country as a whole.  President Obama and Hillary Clinton carried the district in 2012 and 2016, respectively.  McSally, who made history as the first female combat fighter pilot, was first elected to represent the Tucson-based 2nd congressional district in 2014. The 2nd district has a PVI of R+1, meaning that it votes one point more Republican than the nation as a whole. While GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won the district by two points in 2012, President Trump lost it in 2016. McSally was re-elected to a second term with 57 percent, outperforming Trump by 13 points.  This should be one of the closest races of the cycle.  It is in the Toss Up column.

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