Indiana Senate2018

In 2012, Democrat Joe Donnelly, who was then in the U.S. House, was considered an underdog in this Senate race where he was supposed to face long-term GOP U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar, but Lugar lost his primary and Donnelly’s opponent became then-state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Mourdock won with the support of tea party activists, but stumbled out of the primary with a series of impolitic remarks about partisanship, abortion and rape, and never recovered. So even while then-President Obama lost the state, Donnelly defeated Mourdock, 50 percent to 44 percent. In 2016, President Donald Trump carried the state by 19 points while Republicans also won an open U.S. Senate seat, the Governor’s office and six of eight congressional districts. This puts Donnelly high on Republicans’ target list this cycle. Republicans nominated Mike Braun, a businessman who ran as a conservative outsider. At the start of the race, Braun was considered a dark horse, but U.S. Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita spent much of the race attacking each other, allowing Braun and his outsider message to become a viable alternative. In some ways, Braun may prove to be best candidate Republicans could hope for. But, while Braun may not have a congressional voting record (although he was a member of the state legislature for three years), he wasn’t well vetted during the primary, leaving that task to Democrats. However, even with a good political climate for Democrats, it is hard to see how Braun does not give Donnelly a very competitive race this cycle. The contest is in the Toss Up column.

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