Montana Senate2018

There was a time over the summer when it appeared that Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester would cruise to re-election.  Republicans hosted a contentious primary in June that State Auditor Matt Rosendale won with 34 percent to 28 for former Yellowstone County District Judge Russell Fagg, and 19 percent each for USAF veteran and storage company CEO Troy Downing and state Sen. Albert Olszewski.  While Republicans seemed to struggle to unite around Rosendale, Democrats launched a relentless round of attacks, labeling Rosendale as a carpetbagger, dubbing him “Maryland Matt,” and accusing him of wanting to develop public lands.  But, even as it looked as if Rosendale had been backed into a corner, the polls began to close, and is now a race that’s within the margin of error, though continues Tester has been ahead in every public poll to date.  Democrats acknowledge that the race has closed, but point out that Tester has some structural advantages that will all but assure his victory in November. 

As his campaign and his Democratic allies continue to attack Rosendale, Tester has stressed his ability to work across party lines, boasting that President Trump has signed 20 bills that he had co-sponsored. He has also focused on his promise to always act in Montana’s best interest.  Republicans, though, have accused Tester of breaking many of the promises he made when he was first elected, particularly with regard to accepting contributions from lobbyists, missed important committee hearings, and voting against President Trump’s priorities.  They argue that he isn’t the populist he claims to be, noting that he votes with Democrats 90 percent of the time.

Beyond what they say are Rosendale’s vulnerabilities, Democratic strategists point out that Tester and his allies are dominating Rosendale and Republicans on television; they currently have a three to one advantage in gross rating points.  Early voting starts next week; leaving Republicans little time to make their case against the incumbent.  Rosendale also has to deal with a Libertarian candidate on the ballot; Libertarians have denied more than one Republican nominee statewide office.  In the 2012 Senate race, a Libertarian took nearly 7 percent of the vote, while Republican Denny Rehberg got 45 percent.  Tester won the race with just under 49 percent.  Absent the Libertarian, Rehberg would have won the contest, 51 percent to 49 percent.

So why has the race closed?  Largely it’s a matter of Republicans coming home in a state Trump carried by 20 points.  The ongoing saga over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination is also galvanizing the base as Republicans remind voters that Tester voted against Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s first nominee, and has already stated that he will vote against Kavanaugh. 

While the race is moving to Toss Up based on both public and private polling showing the contest within the margin of error, we’ll put a thumb on the scale for Tester.  

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