Nevada is one of the most important states in 2022, with a highly competitive Senate seat and governor’s race. Despite a crowded 16-person GOP primary field, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has emerged as the clear favorite to challenge Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, giving Republicans their strongest nominee for the fall in a race we rate as a Toss Up.

Since the beginning of the year, Polling has shown Lombardo with a consistent advantage – and that was before former President Trump threw his weight behind the sheriff of Nevada’s most populous, heavily Democratic county in late April. However, the blessing from Trump seems more like he wanted to bet on a more sure thing and pad his win-loss record, given that Lombardo hasn’t said the 2020 election was stolen and certainly hasn’t tried to curry favor with the former president as much as other candidates have. It’s a rare case of Trump getting behind the candidate that national establishment Republicans would prefer. In a debate last week, Lombardo declared that “for all practical purposes, this primary is over,”

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