There is no shortage of opinions about the outcome of Tuesday’s gubernatorial contest between Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Republican National Committee chair Ed Gillespie. There isn’t even a lot of (public) agreement within the parties. There are Democrats who are predicting “presidential level” turnout that will hand Northam a significant win, while others believe that the outcome will be very close. There are Republicans who believe that Gillespie is about to score a real upset in a race in which he has trailed in 22 of the 27 public polls released since the June 13 primary (he was ahead in three and two were tied). Other GOP strategists think that Gillespie will fall short, despite gaining some momentum in the last three weeks.
It hasn’t helped that the polls have been all over the place. There were 13 surveys conducted in October that showed outcomes ranging from Northam +17 points to Gillespie +8 points. Northam was ahead in 10 of the polls with leads ranging from four to 17 points. Gillespie had the lead in three of
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