Speaker Paul Ryan's retirement plans could complicate the House GOP's fundraising math. In 2017, Ryan's joint fundraising committee brought in $44 million and transferred $32 million to the NRCC. His exit could leave GOP donors skittish. But even before last week, Democratic donors had been demonstrating far more enthusiasm on a race-by-race basis, a fact reflected in the newest House fundraising reports.

The newest FEC filings spell danger for Republicans. In the most recent fundraising period, Democrats outraised Republicans in at least 60 GOP-held seats, more than twice the 23 seats Democrats need for a majority. Meanwhile, the reverse is true in just five Democratic-held seats. That's going to force the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund to bail out a lot of cash-strapped GOP candidates come the fall.

With less than seven months before the election, the list of GOP members who trail Democrats in cash on hand includes Reps. Tom McClintock (CA-04), Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48), Jack Bergman (MI-01), Mike Bishop (MI-08), John Faso (NY-19), Claudia Tenney (NY-22), Robert Pittenger (NC-09), Ted Budd (NC-13), Keith Rothfus (PA-17), Ralph Norman (SC-05), Tom Garrett (VA-05) and Glenn Grothman (WI-06).

In light of the most recent FEC filings, we're updating our ratings in seven districts, all reflecting improved Democratic prospects. View our full House ratings here. Subscribers can read the Bottom Lines for these changes here

Rating Changes:

  • AZ-08: VACANT (Franks) | Solid R to Likely R
  • AR-02: Hill | Likely R to Lean R
  • IL-14: Hultgren | Likely R to Lean R
  • MI-01: Bergman | Solid R to Likely R
  • OH-14: Joyce | Solid R to Likely R
  • SC-05: Norman | Solid R to Likely R
  • VA-05: Garrett | Likely R to Lean R

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