Staff Writer Matthew Klein and Contributing Analyst Leah Askarinam co-authored this report.
The Empire State is the linchpin of Democrats’ bid to retake the House in 2024. After Democrats’ woeful underperformance here in the midterms, Republicans hold six seats that voted for President Biden in 2020 — more than any other state. And whereas inflation, crime and Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s flagging popularity dominated the midterm landscape, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democrats are betting that higher turnout and former President Donald Trump’s return to the spotlight will allow them to recoup their recent losses.
The biggest question mark remains the map. In 2022, Democrats suffered a giant setback when the state’s top court struck down the map they passed in Albany — dubbed the “Hochulmander” by the GOP for its lopsided 22D-4R intended breakdown — for violating a reform amendment passed by voters in 2014. Instead, a lower court appointed a special master, Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University, to draw a more neutral plan that ended up producing a 15D-11R delegation, much narrower than the previous
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