Democrats need just five seats to flip the U.S. House. And there are five Republican-held House districts in New York that scream “takeover opportunity.”

In 2022, Republicans won five districts outside New York City that, under the current congressional lines, Biden would have carried by margins of 5 to 15 percentage points. They won a sixth district that Biden carried by a fraction of a point. And all six Republicans are freshmen, meaning they haven’t proven that their 2022 appeal has staying power. One of those Republican incumbents isn’t likely to be on the ballot next fall: Rep. George Santos, who was hit this week with a superseding 23-count indictment including wire fraud, money laundering and identity theft (just this week, the other five New York Republican freshmen co-sponsored a resolution to expel him from Congress.)

Aside from Santos, who’s arguably the most scandal-ridden House member in history, the five other Republicans still have plausible paths to victory as long as the current lines remain in place for 2024, which is a big ‘if.” But nationally, there are only

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