Arizona is next in our redistricting series. Throughout 2021, we'll delve into the states in detail, spotlighting a different state's redistricting outlook each week. Make sure to read our full redistricting outlook.

Current Delegation: 5D, 4R 2022 Seats: 9 (No change) Redistricting Control: Bipartisan/independent commission

Current Congressional Map

Map credit: Dave's Redistricting App

Phoenix Inset

Map credit: Dave's Redistricting App

District-Level Population Analysis

Redistricting Outlook

There aren't too many closely divided states that employ independent redistricting commissions. But Arizona and Michigan are the high-stakes exceptions. And unlike in most states, where partisans end up maximizing safe seats and taking competitive ones off the table, Arizona is a rare state where competitiveness is written into the commission's criteria - potentially putting it at the epicenter of the 2022 battle for House control.

For the first decade since the 1950s, Arizona isn't gaining any new seats - a mild surprise when census results arrived. But the Independent Redistricting Commission is poised to drastically redraw the map anyway, posing risks to incumbents in both parties.

Republicans are zeroing in

More from the Cook Political Report