Illinois Democrats Release 14D-3R Draft, but Could Risk a "Dummymander"

October 15, 2021

Today, Illinois's state senate Democrats proposed a gerrymander that would make deceased Gov. Elbridge Gerry blush. With some adventurous cartography, Democrats are attempting to stretch their lead in the delegation from 13D-5R to 14D-3R by eliminating GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger (IL-16) and turning GOP Rep. Rodney Davis's IL-13 blue. But the proposal carries a risk of backfiring: it's both uglier and less effective for Democrats than expected.

As expected, Democrats nuked Kinzinger's current 16th CD, putting much of his rural district into a grotesque GOP "vote sink" - a reworked version of GOP Rep. Mary Miller's 15th CD — that meanders from the outskirts of Rockford to far Downstate Illinois.

But, Democrats have elected to stretch Democratic Rep. Marie Newman's Chicago 3rd CD all the way out to Kinziner's residence in Channahon, reducing its performance from Biden +13 to Biden +6. Considering that the southwest Chicago suburbs are, if anything, trending right, this seat would be a toss up in a favorable midterm climate for the GOP — especially if Kinzinger were to win a primary (though it's hard to

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